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Tag Archive | "Russia"

I’m No Cold Warrior, But…

I’m No Cold Warrior, But…


The current economic crisis entered the political stage as a scene-stealer.  Demanding immediate and prolonged attention, the U.S.’s eyes shifted from foreign affairs to the domestic, spurring introspection on our spending habits, lifestyle, and values. Putin

While some soul-searching certainly was and is necessary in dealing with the economic malaise, the U.S. faces ever greater threats abroad and an increasing inability to respond.  With press attention focusing on the struggling automotive industry, Obama’s healthcare plan, and whether Anita Hill and Sonia Sotomayor’s experiences are different (Ba-duh), international developments have taken a backseat.

Political scientists and commentators have predicted the end of an era of U.S. hegemony, yielding power to four vastly expanding economies–Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

While Barack Obama’s election may have helped relations with American allies tired of Bush’s “suck it” diplomacy, Russia and China remain largely impervious to President Obama’s conciliatory overtures. Recent developments show that Russia is rising.

Putin’s invasion of Georgia last August signaled the end of Russian dormancy.  The Soviet Union may have fallen in 1989, but twenty years later Russia has re-emerged as a force in the region.  Controlling the pipeline to Western Europe’s oil, the economic interdependence of East and West is indelible, even as political ideologies remain antagonistic.  Russian President Dmitri Medvedev’s appointment of the despotic Ramzan Kadyrov to lead Chechnya further demonstrates the country’s turn away from liberalization toward tyranny.  Kadyrov’s opponents are mysteriously disappearing and human rights activists have been killed or kidnapped.

Political and economic developments have bolstered Russia’s position and hindered the United States.  Industries in Eastern Europe are crumbling, leaving citizens jobless and causing some to wonder whether liberty and free markets was a good trade for the security Soviet management brought.  Right-wing politicians are gaining ground and political infighting in the Ukraine among President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has paved the way for a candidate favorable to the Kremlin.  Meanwhile, the Obama adminstration’s focus on fixing the mess inherited from the Bush years leaves them with a foreign policy toolbox devoid of hefty loans and military threats.

What should be done?  President Obama needs to take a more active stance on foreign policy with Russia. The Cold War is over.  The world is no longer entangled in an ideological battle between socialism and capitalism.  However, threats from an illiberal state persist.  While Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and North Korea warrant attention, and the Russian threat may not be the most pressing issue currently, it will provide a formidable obstacle to peace in the world if the U.S. remains disengaged.

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A silver lining on the empty petrol lines?

A silver lining on the empty petrol lines?

Bulgaria Flag

From the New York Times:

Only a year ago, the country’s president, Georgi Parvanov, who is pro-Russian, declared that Bulgaria had “hit a grand slam” after the country signed several energy deals with Moscow aimed at ensuring its gas supply, including one for a pipeline that would connect Russia and Italy and run through Bulgaria. Last week in Varna, a Bulgarian port city on the Black Sea, residents protested the gas stoppage in front of the Russian Consulate, holding banners that read, “Stop Putin’s Gas War.”

Alexander Bozhkov, a former Bulgarian deputy prime minister who is currently chairman of the Center for Economic Development here, said the crisis had laid bare for Bulgaria the enormous human and economic cost of relying on Russia. He predicted that it would result in the electoral defeat of the Socialist government and that it would reorient the country firmly toward the European Union and Washington. [Emphasis added -- EML]

Meanwhile, it doesn’t appear that the Gazprom-EU standoff is coming any closer to a close. Orientation with the West is broadly good, but is good insofar as the EU/NATO isn’t expanded beyond the point of recognition and usefulness, little more than a limited UN with a currency (once Turkey joins, why not Libya? Why not Canada?). It seems as though the former Soviet satellite states that have defied the Mother Bear — Ukraine, Georgia, the Baltic states, among others — would be well-served in forming an association (a mini-Entente, if you will), firmly allied with the EU but separate from it insofar as interests of these states’ independence rise above their necessity in joining the Eurozone, adhering to bureaucratic standards, etc.

Drawing maps, this Recovering Communist Vassals Anonymous association is made awkward by the fact that (a) Georgia is geographically a world away from the other, properly European states, and (b) Belarus, essentially a Soviet vestige, inconveniently separates the Baltic states from the rest. We do have airplanes, but borders help for relationships.


Image courtesy of Flickr reader Klearchos Kapoutsis

Posted in Current Affairs, To the RightComments (0)

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