Political strategists of all stripes have been pulling their hair out over the last year about the seeming fragmentation of the US into five voting blocs – progressives, Democratic Party faithful, centrists, GOP faithful, and the so-called Tea Party. The reason this is so problematic for US politics is because the United States has a voting system known as First Past the Post, used exclusively in only a smattering of countries with functional governments. Comparativists call the different forms of group identification in the US and in other states where parties are purely ideological “cross-cutting cleavages” – essentially the idea is that party identification will be fluid because parties aren’t allowed to purposefully represent one ethnicity or religious group. So, a committed Roman Catholic might believe strongly in the Puritan value set of it being everyone’s responsibility to care for the weaker brother – Jesus referenced this in the Beatitudes – and thereby identify best with the Democrats. Or, that same Roman Catholic might decide that protecting the rights of the unborn is the most important thing this election cycle, and so will vote with the Republicans.

The beauty of this system is that it balances group identification to prevent our political system from becoming overly fragmented. But in 2010, my America looks very different. Disillusioned voters on both sides, upset with a lack of leadership in Washington, are flocking to their respective pundit classes to be told the way of the future. Now, with a balanced and responsible Fourth Estate, this would be workable. But talking heads on the right such as Glenn Beck (the keynote speaker at CPAC 2010) and Sarah Palin are passing themselves off as mainstream, and in efforts to both widen the tent and make more cash, have refused to exclude even the dangerously crazy from their faithful following.  It is irresponsible to pretend that attacks from “birthers” pretending that there is something to contest about the first African-American president’s birth certificate are anything less than racist. However, it is equally irresponsible to write these conspiracy theorists off as some kind of fringe movement.  Although their ideas are certainly not typically associated with the mainstream, they seem to have found the perfect blend of ambiguity and populism to bring as many people in as possible, whether out of terror at the health care bill (“ObamaCare”) or out of fear for Obama’s tax hikes (while actually, the opposite is true).

It is fair to assert that these groups will be somewhat marginalized by the realities of the 2010 election. However, it doesn’t necessarily take a huge amount of people to push mainstream candidates out of the way. New York’s 23rd District was nearly hijacked by a Conservative Party candidate after he won support from Beck and Palin. And the dearth of leadership and epidemic of opportunism in the GOP right now is so desperate, it is not unrealistic to anticipate a new Republican Party after 2010, tied to the coffin of Ronald Reagan and some amorphous agenda focused on tax cuts and smaller government – as long as we keep the government’s hands off my Medicare.

As some of you may know, noted blowhard Glenn Beck has come up with yet-another nationalistic publicity scam. Seemingly in an attempt to appeal to the same people who unironically talked about teabagging Obama, Beck has come up with what he calls the 9/12 Project.

Beck’s stated purpose for the project is to “bring us all back to the place we were on September 12, 2001.”

In the interests of Mr. Beck’s noble quest to unite America, I have compiled a list (neither 9 nor 12 items long) of ways we can all

They just can't wait to teabag Obama

(Red Staters and Blue Staters) help to win back that magical 9/12 feeling.

1. Keep you eye on that foreign-looking guy next door. You know the one I’m talking about: turban guy. He’s up to something.

2. Seal your house up with duct tape. Neglect no door or window.  A dirty bomb could strike at any time. An airtight house is a safe one.

3. Actually, to be safe, seal your kids up with cellophane. Dirty bombs spare no one, not even the young.

4. Start stockpiling ammunition and water. In the event of the terrorist apocalypse, every Good American knows it’s every man for himself.

5. Dress yourself and your kids in Red, White, and Blue. These colors don’t run and offer virtually endless  opportunities for accessorization. Also, horizontal stripes (such as those found on Old Glory) make you look slimmer (see item #6).

6. Eat plenty of Freedom Fries.

7. Be afraid! Fear is what keeps us together.

Follow these simple guidlines, and we can pull through this together. In the meantime, I’ll be in my apartment irradiating my mail against anthrax.

In 1980, a realigning election took place. The campaign of Ronald Reagan and the efforts of his supporters in the following decades transformed the Republican party. A political awakening of Christians brought in votes for the party that suddenly billed itself as not only superior policy-wise, but morally. The free market was persuasively tied to personal liberty and convinced even some of the poorest Americans that regulations on financial institutions and consumable goods represented a direct threat to their liberty and economic advancement. What followed would see the electoral fortunes of the party rise ever higher, until reaching a climax with near domination of the executive and legislative branches. They used this unique opportunity to reduce the national debt, trim the overextended branches of the government, and ensure the American people against government intrusion.

This last bit did not happen, obviously. Debts piled up, public services continued, and the government was found again and again to be knowingly violating the privacy rights of its citizens. Many began to cast doubts on the direction of the party. Now, factions have begun infighting. The party has been led by those who have for three decades stirred their constituents into a frenzy, convincing them that the opponents of the party would literally destroy America. Facts have become malleable to agenda as conservatives have disputed everything from scientific consensus to the mainstream interpretation of the effects of the New Deal. As the party splinters, some of that vehemence has turned inward.

Glenn Beck Doin' His Thing

Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh lead a lunatic fringe that has grown to near majority status, likely representing a good portion of the 30% of Americans who refused to give up on George Bush and those who opposed him for not going far enough. The economic conservatives who once looked at religious America as an opportunity for advancement now look in horror as the fanatical and nationalistic monster they created breaks free of its restraints and seeks dominance. One need not look further than the Birther movement to see the extreme to which some have gone. Though saner conservatives would like to dismiss them as a miniscule but vocal minority, there is evidence that 58% of Republicans doubt or outright deny the President’s eligibility. Worse still, this includes 70% of white southerners.

This is dangerous to our country as the fringe seems only to be gaining in momentum. Republican representatives will be forced to make the choice between giving credence to these claims or being attacked by their own party, as Representative Mike Castle (R-DE) so unpleasantly discovered. Castle has since turned away from the traditional “town hall” meeting to one conducted over the telephone. Many Republican politicians, wary of such confrontation have done the same, such as my own Representative, John Kline. By desperately trying to keep control of their message by limiting their contact with their voters, they may find a challenger from the distant Right come election time.

The GOP is in a very unpleasant situation. The old guard seems to be finding the new reality hard to face. Even Ann Coulter, author of Treason: Liberal Treachery, has alienated herself from her average readers by stating that the claims are untrue. If the sensible members of the party cannot address these claims they will find themselves hung out to dry as the division exacerbates or someone co-opts the party and swings it yet further to the right.